Are Experts Expecting a Boom or Bust in the Real Estate Market?

Written by Donna Kerr on May 13, 2019 · Leave a Comment

The most frequent question we get as Realtors is, "How's the market?"  Everyone is wondering if we are entering another “bubble,” or if prices will continue to rise. Is now the time to buy your dream home, when interest rates are historically low? Or, should you wait for a decline in prices, possibly risking a rise in rates?  

Experts Agree Existing Home Prices Are Up Across the Country

According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home prices are still on the rise over the last year in the United States, at a normal appreciation rate of 3.6%. Increases are highest in the Midwest, at 5.4%.

Chart showing home price appreciation in U.S.
According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), there’s strong year-over-year appreciation in home sale prices throughout the country, with no part of the country experiencing, or expected to experience,  a decline.

Year-over-year price housing price changes in U.S

CoreLogic, a leader in real estate data intelligence, reports that only two states, Louisiana and North Dakota, saw a minor decline in year-over-year pricing this past year, with the rest of the country remaining strong. Moving forward in 2019 and beyond, CoreLogic is forecasting an average U.S. appreciation of 4.6%.  In fact, there is some recent speculation that CoreLogic’s 2019 projection may be adjusted upward due to the strong start of the 2019 market.

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The forecast of a continued healthy real estate market is corroborated by the Home Price Expectations Survey by Pulsenomics, which surveys a distinguished panel of more than 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts regarding their 5-year expectations for future home prices in the United States. Although the projections of those surveyed ranged from the bullish 28.3% increase (representing one-quarter of those surveyed) to the bearish 6.6% (one quarter surveyed), half of those surveyed are predicting a 17.1% cumulative price appreciation by 2023, indicating a healthy real estate market for the next 5 years.

If you need more convincing, here are the forecasts from Home Price Expectations Survey, Zelman and Associates, the Mortgage Bankers Association, Freddie Mac, NAR, and Fannie Mae. For each of the years projected, prices are expected to rise with none of the experts projecting a decline in home values over the next three years.  

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And that’s good news for everyone. Right now may be the perfect time to buy your first home or consider moving up to a larger, forever-home because interest rates are still low at about 4.5%, with expected increases beginning later this year.

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So, if you’re considering whether now is a good time for finding your new or next happy place, consider scheduling a call with one of our experienced agents. Let’s have a conversation about your goals. We can answer your questions and be a resource for you as you contemplate your options.

When you are ready, let’s talk!